miércoles, 28 de diciembre de 2016

Charly Munger





BETA:

“Beta and modern portfolio theory and the like – none of it makes any sense to me.” Source

BIOLOGY:
“Common stock investors can make money by predicting the outcomes of practice evolution. You can’t derive this by fundamental analysis — you must think biologically.”Source

“I find it quite useful to think of a free market economy—or partly free market economy—as sort of the equivalent of an ecosystem… ” Source

BLACK-SCHOLES:

“Black-Scholes is a know-nothing system. If you know nothing about value — only price — then Black-Scholes is a pretty good guess at what a 90-day option might be worth. But the minute you get into longer periods of time, it’s crazy to get into Black-Scholes. For example, at Costco we issued stock options with strike prices of $30 and $60, and Black-Scholes valued the $60 ones higher. This is insane.” Source

”Black-Scholes works for short-term options, but if it’s a long-term option and you think you know something [about the underlying asset], it’s insane to use Black-Scholes.” Source

BOARD OF DIRECTORS:

“A board member should be perfectly willing to leave at any time and willing to make the tough calls.” Source
“The institution of the board of directors of the major American company. Well, the top guy is sitting there, he’s an authority figure. He’s doing asinine things, you look around the board, nobody else is objecting, social proof, it’s okay? Reciprocation tendency, he’s raising the directors fees every year, he’s flying you around in the corporate airplane to look at interesting plants, or whatever in hell they do, and you go and you really get extreme dysfunction as a corrective decision-making body in the typical American board of directors. They only act, again the power of incentives, they only act when it gets so bad it starts making them look foolish, or threatening legal liability to them. That’s Munger’s rule. I mean there are occasional things that don’t follow Munger’s rule, but by and large the board of directors is a very ineffective corrector if the top guy is a little nuts, which, of course, frequently happens.” Source

BRAIN:

“I think it is undeniably true that the human brain must work in models. The trick is to have your brain work better than the other person’s brain because it understands the most fundamental models: ones that will do most work per unit.”  LatticeWork, The new Investing quoting OID 
“The basic neural network of the brain is there through broad genetic and cultural evolution. And it’s not Fermat/Pascal. It uses a very crude, shortcut type of approximation. It’s got elements of Fermat/Pascal in it. However, it’s not good. So you have to learn in a very usable way this very elementary math and use it routinely in life ‑ just the way if you want to become a golfer, you can’t use the natural swing that broad evolution gave you. You have to learn to have a certain grip and swing in a different way to realize your full potential as a golfer.” Source

“Man’s imperfect, limited-capacity brain easily drifts into working with what’s easily available to it. And the brain can’t use what it can’t remember or when it’s blocked from recognizing because it is heavily influenced by one or more psychological tendencies bearing strongly on it…” “…the Deep structure of the human mind requires that the way to full scope competency of virtually any kind is learn it all to fluency – like it or not.” Source
BRANDS:

“It’s hard to predict what will happen with two brands in a market.  Sometimes they will behave in a gentlemanly way, and sometimes they’ll pound each other.  I know of no way to predict whether they’ll compete moderately or to the death.  If you could figure it out, you could make a lot of money.” Source
BRIDGE:

“The right way to think is the way Zeckhauser plays bridge. It’s just that simple.” Source
“Your brain doesn’t naturally know how to think the way Zeckhauser knows how to play bridge. ‘For example’,  people do not react symmetrically to loss and gain. Well maybe a great bridge player like Zeckhauser does, but that’s a trained response. Ordinary people, subconsciously affected by their inborn tendencies…” Source
BUBBLES:

“[The Internet bubble circa 2000 is] the most extreme in modern capitalism. In the 1930s, we had the worst depression in 600 years. Today is almost as extreme in the opposite way.” Source
“One of the first big bubbles, of course, was the huge and horrible South Sea Bubble in England. And the aftermath was interesting. Many of you probably don’t remember what happened after the South Sea Bubble, which caused an enormous financial contraction, and a lot of pain. They banned publicly traded stock in England for decades.”Source
BULL MARKETS:

“Bull markets go to people’s heads. If you’re a duck on a pond, and it’s rising due to a downpour, you start going up in the world. But you think it’s you, not the pond.” Source
BUREAUCRACY:
“The great defect of scale, of course, which makes the game interesting—so that the big people don’t always win—is that as you get big, you get the bureaucracy. And with the bureaucracy comes the territoriality—which is again grounded in human nature. And the incentives are perverse. For example, if you worked for AT&T in my day, it was a great bureaucracy. Who in the hell was really thinking about the shareholder or anything else? And in a bureaucracy, you think the work is done when it goes out of your in-basket into somebody else’s in-basket. But, of course, it isn’t. It’s not done until AT&T delivers what it’s supposed to deliver. So you get big, fat, dumb, unmotivated bureaucracies…. The constant curse of scale is that it leads to big, dumb bureaucracy—which, of course, reaches its highest and worst form in government where the incentives are really awful. That doesn’t mean we don’t need governments—because we do. But it’s a terrible problem to get big bureaucracies to behave.” Source
“Sears had layers and layers of people it didn’t need. It was very bureaucratic. It was slow to think. And there was an established way of thinking. If you poked your head up with a new thought, the system kind of turned against you. It was everything in the way of a dysfunctional big bureaucracy that you would expect.” Source
BUSINESSES:
“We’ve really made the money out of high quality businesses. In some cases, we bought the whole business. And in some cases, we just bought a big block of stock. But when you analyze what happened, the big money’s been made in the high quality businesses. And most of the other people who’ve made a lot of money have done so in high quality businesses.” Source
BUSINESS SCHOOL:
“I was recently speaking with Jack McDonald, who teaches a course on investing rooted in our principles at Stanford Business School. He said it’s lonely — like he’s the Maytag repairman.” Source
BUYING BACK SHARES:
“A lot of share-buying, not bargain-seeking, is designed to prop stock prices up. Thirty to 40 years ago, it was very profitable to look at companies that were aggressively buying their own shares. They were motivated simply to buy below what it was worth.” Source
CAPITAL ALLOCATION:
There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns 12%, and you can take it out at the end of the year. The second earns 12%, but all the excess cash must be reinvested — there’s never any cash. It reminds me of the guy who looks at all of his equipment and says, ‘There’s all of my profit.’ We hate that kind of business.” Source
CAPITALISM:
“When it gets into these spikes, with shortages and uproar and so forth, people go bananas, but that’s capitalism.” Source
“I regard it as very unfair, but capitalism without failure is like religion without hell.” Source
“Capitalism is a pretty brutal place.” Source
CASH:
“Our cash is speaking for itself.  If we had a lot of wonderful ideas, we wouldn’t have so much cash.” Source
“There are worse situations than drowning in cash and sitting, sitting, sitting. I remember when I wasn’t awash in cash —and I don’t want to go back.” Source
 CHANGE:
“Those who will not face improvements because they are changes, will face changes that are not improvements” Source
CHARACTER:
“It’s hard to judge the combination of character and intelligence and other things. It’s not at all simple, which explains why we have so many divorces. (Laughter) Think about how much people know about the person they marry, yet so many break up. It’s not easy, it is in some cases. If people are splashing around with money like Dennis Kozlowski, with vodka at parties coming out of some body part, and if it looks like Sodom and Gomorrah, then maybe this isn’t what you’re looking for. (Laughter) But beyond that, it’s hard. If you have some unfortunate experiences while getting that knowledge, well, welcome to the human race. (Laughter)” Source
“At Berkshire Hathaway we do not like to compete against Chinese manufacturers.” http://www.tilsonfunds.com/motley_berkshire_brkmtg02notes.php
CIALDINI: 
“Cialdini does a magnificent job at this, and you’re all going to be given a copy of Cialdini’s book. And if you have half as much sense as I think you do, you will immediately order copies for all of your children and several of your friends. You will never make a better investment.” http://www.loschmanagement.com/Berkshire%20Hathaway/Charlie%20munger/The%20Psychology%20of%20Human%20Misjudgement.htm 
CICERO:  
“As I continued through Cicero’s pages, I found much more material celebrating my way of life … ““Cicero’s words also increased my personal satisfaction by supporting my long-standing rejection of a conventional point of view.”  http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2006/mft06072637.htm






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The Grant Cardone Method

Grant Cardone is a sales guru that has a variety a sales training and sales management products that his company sells to the auto industry. The “Cardone” method is a deviation from the basic “foursquare”Write-Up.

Essentially, instead of the salesman presenting the customer with “hit-figures” and then extracting a committed offer. A sales department using the “Cardone Method” will initially present the customer with an offer.

Usually this "Cardone" write-Up is a printed page of “hit figures”. For example, instead of having the salesmen go from “square to “square” the salesman will arrive with a document that will provide the customer with a selection of payments that are based on different terms with different down payments. The basic concept is that the customer will forgo negotiation by selecting a low payment.

Also, because it is a printed worksheet it will look more legitimate than the hand written “foursquare”.  Never-the-less, all the same components will be present Trade-in, Month Payment and Down payment.

Many times this method will attempt to commit the customer using an option close. For example, they will present several payments; some lease and some finance, and ask, “Which payment would like to have?”

Keep in mind, some dealers will use this method of without using Cardone’s software or even know who Grant Cardone is. It is simply a way to begin the negotiations.

It does not matter how the dealer chooses to extract your offer.  However, your offer must be based on the research and calculations performed in the earlier chapters.

Your personal willpower is meaningless when you are surrounded by a bunch of people with a combined willpower that exceeds your willpower, and their will is to destroy you, themselves and everyone around them.'-Grant Cardone
Grant Cardone: And so I was hanging around a lot of people and, it was the great will that was winning, so, probably the single biggest shift for me was the book 'Dianetics' by L. Ron Hubbard, and it’s about the mind. That book is not about Scientology. When you say Dianetics, most every body thinks Scientology immediately. That book is Dianetics, the word dianetics is what the mind is doing to the body, and that book literally changed my life. It woke me up, it took me out of a state of unconsciousness.

And that book is not Scientology, a person confuses this and thinks oh, that's Scientology, but its not. Dianetics is a different thing than Scientology is. A person can read that book, you know, I was brought up Catholic, so a person can read that book and still be a Catholic, or a Muslim, or agnostic, or whatever you want to be, Baptist, or Protestant, or Mormon. That book is about your mind, and regardless of whether you're a Mormon, or Muslim, or Catholic, or whatever you believe in, that book is just about how your mind works. And that was the problem I was having in my life. Drugs basically disguised the problems in my mind, and it covered things up, until the drugs wore off, and it was like, oh! problem! And that book really, really woke me up.

Bruce Edwin:
 Cool. That's something that I like about you and your work, is what you said earlier, and that is when you said, oh, people kept saying I was doing every thing wrong, so I must be doing something right, and with what you said here about Dianetics, because obviously what you are talking about with that book in particular, is obviously criticized negatively, and as you said, misunderstood, and that's not how the majority of the world thinks about some of these things...

Grant Cardone:
 You have to understand, the majority of the world used to think the world was flat, so every great thing that has ever come along, it doesn't matter whether it was fire, or the automobile, they've all been resisted. Everything. I'm building a condo on the Ocean front right now in La Jolla (California), it's a great thing! It’s much better than what’s there now. I own the property there now, I own twenty units there. We're going to build it, but we're going to get people to resist it. And the only thing they're resisting is a better thing!

People resisted Gandhi, Jesus Christ, you know, entire civilizations have burnt every book that they ever had. You know, the Greek don't even have any thing (much of their own) to read any more, because every thing was burned. So, things are resisted. They killed John Kennedy, Martin Luther King was killed, these weren't bad people, these were great people! They were people that were resisted!

Bruce Edwin:
 Exactly.

Grant Cardone:
 See, all the controversy surrounding Scientology actually drew me to it. I figured it must be something interesting if it is getting everyone so jacked up, I will go check it out and discover what the truth is for myself. I like looking at things that are new and that other's either don't understand or just refuse to even consider. The fact is history proves that when masses of people make a decision one way or the other regarding any topic most of the time the masses are wrong. Scientology and Dianetics is a great thing, I know it helps people, it has made my life incredibly rich in every way....and no one should be threatened by it just because it is new. It solves problems, it puts man in a position to be in control of his / her life, and wakes people up so they can discover what is true for them. The biggest secret about Scientology is how many wildly successful business people use it in their businesses to create success. 

Bruce Edwin:
 Wow. Grant, Something great about you is your energy and motivation, which helps enable you to do all these huge things you have done and are doing. Aside from the people around you in life, I'm sure that helps, but is there kind of a ritual that you go through in your life? I mean, what advice would you give people to get and stay motivated?


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